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UN Climate Negotiations Conclude with ‘Cancun Agreements’

On December 11, 193 nations reached agreement in several areas at the UN climate summit in Cancun, Mexico. Known as the ‘Cancun Agreements’, the package solidifies key elements from last year’s summit in Copenhagen, which were never formally adopted. The new global framework includes the creation of a Green Climate Fund to transfer money from rich nations to poor nations climate change mitigation and adaption in addition to research centers that will ease the transfer of clean technology and the establishment of a system to compensate nations for preserving forests that are vulnerable to logging or burning. The deal does not include details on how the pledged aid will be funded, whether the Kyoto Protocol will be extended, or targets that will keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius–a target nations agreed to in Copenhagen. “None of this, of course, is world changing,” said Michael A. Levi, who follows climate issues at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “The Cancún agreement should be applauded not because it solves everything, but because it chooses not to: it focuses on those areas where the U.N. process has the most potential to be useful, and avoids other areas where the U.N. process is a dead end. The outcome does not change the fact that most of the important work of cutting emissions will be driven outside the U.N. process.”

For additional information see: Washington Post, BBC, New York Times, UNFCCC Press Release

Court Denies Request to Block EPA Regulations

On December 10, the Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia denied a request to block the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from implementing new rules on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Industry groups had appealed to the court, arguing that the EPA did not conduct enough of its own research when it found that carbon is a danger to human health. Critics of the rules also argued that the agency was not equipped to control GHG emissions and the rules would harm the economy. However, the court said the opponents’ case did not meet the “stringent standards” necessary for the court to stop the rules. Opponents did not prove that the rules were “certain” to create negative consequences and not “speculative”, the court said. Several lawsuits, however, still proceed against the EPA’s climate-related rules.

For additional information see: Reuters, Politico

China Offers Voluntary Emissions Target, U.S. Wants More Transparency

On December 6, Chinese government officials offered for the first time to submit its voluntary carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions target to a binding UN resolution. China hopes that developed countries will agree to extend the Kyoto Protocol, which sets mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets for developed countries through 2012, as the global GHG emissions agreement. The Protocol allows developing countries’ GHG emissions targets to be voluntary. China’s envoy, Xie Zhenhua said, “developing countries can. . . make their own voluntary emissions commitments and these should be under the Convention.” However, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Huang Huikang, told ClimateWire that China is “poor” and “not on the same level” as the United States. “In principle we will make our commitment under the convention, but this time it is probably premature to discuss whether China’s commitment is legally binding or not.” Japan, Russia, and Canada are among the developed nations that are seeking a new agreement that would set legally binding CO2 emissions targets for all countries.

In response, chief U.S. envoy, Todd Stern, said he doesn’t see China’s statement as a game-changer, and still wants China to increase its transparency by allowing an expert panel to verify emissions cuts.“I’ve seen quotes from some people saying this can be a game-changer,” Stern said. “I’d love it to be a game-changer, but as far as I’m concerned, this is business as usual.” He went on to say, “that was the Copenhagen Accord, as far as we’re concerned.” India proposed guidelines that would put rapidly developing countries like China into a separate category from the poorest nations. To that, Stern said, “there is a lot of support in the conference and among developing countries for the proposal the Indians have put forward.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg, Reuters, New York Times

Supreme Court Will Hear Public Nuisance Climate Change Case

On December 6, the Supreme Court announced it will hear the case American Electric Power Co. v. Connecticut next year. The case began in 2004 when eight states, New York City, and several land trust groups filed a public nuisance lawsuit against utility companies for emitting greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Public nuisance lawsuits allow the plaintiffs to bring a lawsuit against defendants whom they believe are creating a public nuisance. In 2005, a federal judge in New York ruled that the plaintiffs could not proceed with the lawsuits because they raised political questions that the court could not answer. However, in 2009, the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled they could proceed. The utilities in question have challenged this decision, and the Supreme Court will consider their challenge. The plaintiff states include Connecticut, New York, California, Iowa, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and Vermont. The utility companies include American Electric Power Co., Duke Energy, Southern Co., Xcel Energy Inc., and the Tennessee Valley Authority. When the lawsuit was filed, the federal government was not regulating greenhouse gas emissions, but since then it has been ordered to do so under the 2007 Supreme Court decision, Massachusetts v. EPA. Justice Sonia Sotomayor recused herself because she heard the case while serving as an appeals court judge.

For additional information see: Politico, Dow Jones Newswire, New York Times, Wall Street Journal

NM Regulators Approve Emissions Cap

On December 6, New Mexico regulators approved an environmental group’s proposal for capping greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. New Energy Economy (NEE), a non-profit New Mexico-based organization, petitioned the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board asking large polluters such as coal-fired power plants and refiners to reduce their GHG emissions by three percent per year from 2010 levels. The program will take effect in 2013 and end in 2020, or sooner if a national or regional carbon pollution reduction plan preempts it. It will apply to electricity generators and other facilities that emit at least 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. This is in line with the state’s recently adopted cap and trade program, which will go into effect only if other U.S. states or Canadian provinces move ahead with similar programs. Opponents fear the newly approved proposal and the cap and trade program will put New Mexico at a disadvantage. Supporters believe the plan will allow New Mexico to control GHG emissions independent of the cap and trade program, which relies on regional partners. “This new policy makes New Mexico the nation’s leader in carbon pollution reduction while at the same time stimulating our economy and creating jobs for New Mexico families and communities,” said Mariel Nanasi, NEE Senior Policy Advisor. “The board understands that the same technologies that can reduce carbon pollution can also make New Mexico more competitive in the clean energy economy, which means more long-term, well-paying jobs for New Mexicans.”

In related news, on December 7, the Farmington City Council voted to challenge the state’s recently approved cap and trade program, which was approved in November by the state Environmental Improvement Board and would allow New Mexico to participate in a regional cap and trade program with other Western states and Canadian provinces. The program would require coal-fired power plants, refineries, natural gas compressor stations, and other facilities that pump out a certain level of carbon dioxide (CO2) to reduce their CO2 emissions two percent every year beginning in 2012. Facilities that are unable to reduce their emissions would be able to buy allowances through the regional trading program, and facilities under the emissions cap would be able to sell their allowances for a profit.

For additional information see: Associated Press, Sustainable Business, Associated Press, Farmington Daily Times

Cancun Negotiations Close to Agreement on Forest Preservation

The second week of climate negotiations in Cancun held promise for a deal to cut carbon emissions through forest preservation, also known as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). Many leaders agreed that a new fund should be set up to allow rich countries to pay poor countries to preserve their forests. The idea was met with some resistance by others who don’t want trees to become global commodities. Around 13 million hectares of forest are cut down every year for timber or land-grazing purposes, which contributes about 15-20 percent of carbon emissions every year, because the trees are no longer absorbing carbon. Most of the money to preserve the forests would likely come from global carbon trading markets that allow industries to purchase offsets for the carbon that they emit. The U.S. has said that it will not support a REDD deal unless its core requirement — an emissions verification system — is met. Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said REDD is the “the fastest, the cheapest and easiest way” to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases. Mexican President Felipe Calderon said it is a way “to reduce both poverty and emissions at the same time.”

For additional information see: London Telegraph, Washington Post, Guardian, Associated Press

India Offers Binding Emissions Targets

On December 9, Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said that India will consider a legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target in the future. “All countries must take a binding commitment under an appropriate legal form,” he said while speaking at the UN climate negotiations in Cancun, Mexico. Previously, India, like China, had been unwilling to commit its voluntary emissions targets to a legally binding commitment. Ramesh said that he wanted to see the content of a future agreement including any penalties for non-compliance first. Currently, India is considered a developing country, and thus is not required to set mandatory GHG targets under the Kyoto Protocol, which will end in 2012.

For additional information see: Agence France Presse, Reuters, Indian Express

World Bank Announces Carbon Market Fund for Developing Countries

On December 8, World Bank President Robert Zoellick announced the establishment of a multi-million dollar fund to help developing countries set up carbon markets. The countries expected to participate include China, Mexico, Chile, and Indonesia. The fund could reach up to $100 million and will provide technical and institutional support to developing countries. “This new Partnership – which brings together developed and developing nations – will help countries get ready to put in place domestic trading schemes and other market-based instruments to meet national mitigation objectives,” Zoellick said. “The fact that developing countries are looking for market-readiness support is testament to the drive for climate action at the national level – these countries are not waiting, they’re getting on with it as part of their development goals.” The fund is expected to be operational by 2011.

For additional information see: Reuters, Business Green, New York Times, World Bank Press Release

Committee Urges UK Government to Increase Carbon Emissions Cuts

On December 7, the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) released a report urging its government to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 60 percent by 2030 from 1990 levels. This means that the 2020 target would have to be revised from a 34 percent to a 37 percent reduction. Prior CCC targets were turned into laws, and this target is a step to having a legally binding 80 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 as required by the nation’s Climate Change Act. “We are recommending a stretching but realistic fourth carbon budget and 2030 target, achievable at a cost of less than 1% of GDP. We therefore urge the government to legislate the budget, and to develop the policies required to cut emissions,” said CCC Chair Adair Turner. The CCC also recommends a fundamental change in the UK’s electricity market. CCC recommends a better planned approach by having the government tender long-term contracts for low-carbon power generation and commit to buy a certain percentage of the power. The CCC also recommends that 60 percent of new vehicles in 2030 should be electric.

For additional information see: Business Green, Reuters, Guardian, Report

Large Human Death Toll and Economic Costs Expected from Climate Change Impacts

On December 3, a leading humanitarian research organization released a report claiming that 5 million deaths are expected by 2020 from climate change impacts. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor report was prepared by DARA, a non-profit international organization, and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), an alliance of countries most vulnerable to climate change. The report estimated there are already 350,000 deaths per year due to climate change, most of whom are children and women in developing countries, and this number will only increase. The report assessed 184 countries and estimates that by 2030, 170 of those countries will experience at least one significant climate-related impact. Global financial losses due to climate change effects are expected to reach $200 billion by 2020 and $275 billion by 2030. The report predicted that the U.S. will have the largest economic loss of any country due to climate change impacts. “Whilst it is the poorest, most vulnerable nations on earth that will bear the brunt of the climate crisis, the industrialized world is not immune from its impact,” advisor to the report, Jose Figueres said. “Countries such as the United States will suffer the greatest economic losses from climate change so it is clearly in their own interest to act now to address these impacts, and to mitigate climate change.” The report also listed 50 actions that nations can take to avoid the worst climate impacts.

For additional information see: Forbes, Sustainable Business, Report

Report Ranks Countries on Climate Change Performance

On December 6, Germanwatch and Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe released its sixth annual Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) during the UN climate negotiations in Cancun, Mexico. The index “compares the climate protection performance of 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 percent of the global energy related carbon dioxide emissions.” The index is based on the strength of climate policies and how well countries control greenhouse gases. The first three spots were left vacant because no country did enough to earn the honor. The index ranks Brazil as the top climate protection performer (fourth) due to its efforts to cut emissions and reduce deforestation. Sweden, Norway, and Germany followed Brazil on the list. Canada was ranked fifty-seventh, followed by Australia, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. was ranked fifty-fourth.

For additional information see: United Press International, CBC News, Report

Current Shortage of GHG Professionals Likely to Get Worse

In the first week of December, the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI) and Sequence Staffing released a report that shows there is a shortage of greenhouse gas (GHG) professionals in the global marketplace. This is the second annual survey centered on GHG professionals, and like last year’s report, it found a significant gap in the supply and demand of GHG professionals. The report examines the “trends, requirements, and sentiment of the global practitioner corps that is undertaking work to measure and manage climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions.” More than half of the respondents have worked in the field for less than five years, most respondents believe that GHG auditing needs some type of certification for individual auditors, and less than half of the respondents used GHG software. The shortage of GHG professionals is likely to increase as climate change programs increase globally.

For additional information see: GreenBiz, Report

Ocean Acidification Could Threaten Food Security

On December 2, the United Nations Environment Program released a report showing that ocean acidification linked to climate change may threaten food security. The report shows that shellfish, mussels, shrimp, and lobsters could be most at risk because ocean acidification makes it harder for them to form protective shells. Additionally, the damage to coral reefs could cause problems for many commercial fisheries as the reefs for are critical for nurseries. The oceans have become 30 percent more acidic since the industrial revolution due to increased absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2). Ptetropods — tiny mollusks at the bottom of the food chain — may reduce in number due to the inability to form protective shells, which will affect a number of larger fish higher on the food chain. Carol Turley, lead author of the report, said, “we are seeing an overall negative impact from ocean acidification directly on organisms and on some key ecosystems that help provide food for billions. We need to start thinking about the risk to food security.” The report states that fish supplies 15 percent of the protein requirements for three billion people, and another one billion people rely on fish as their primary source of protein. The report urges cuts in CO2 emissions to reduce ocean acidification and more support for research to quantify the risks and identify the species most at risk.

For additional information see: Reuters, Agence France Presse, CNN, UNEP Report

Climate Change Drove Cultural Changes in the Prehistoric Period

On December 6, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that cultural shifts in North American populations during the prehistoric period were likely due to climactic changes that occurred simultaneously. The team of researchers, led by geographer Samuel Munoz from the University of Ottawa, analyzed a multitude of data to show that nearly all of the transitions between cultural periods occurred at times of ecological changes. The cultural shifts that accompanied the climate shifts were marked by a more sedentary lifestyle, a change in the plants and animals used for food, and a change in the kinds of tools they used.

For additional information see: Science, Abstract

Climate Change Cycle Turns Arctic Forests into Major Carbon Emitters

On December 5, a study published in Nature Geosciences shows that climate change is causing more frequent and severe Alaskan wildfires, which pumps higher amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere than previously thought. The intensity of forest fires in Alaska is growing largely due to the lengthening of the summer burning season. The late-season fires burn deeper into the soil, which ignites peat that ordinarily acts as a long-term carbon sink. According to the researchers, this is the first study to show that fires in the Alaskan interior have become more severe in the past 10 years, and have released more CO2 into the atmosphere than was stored during the same period. “There is no way these systems are serving as a net carbon sink anymore,” said Merritt Turetsky, lead author of the report. “Essentially, it represents a runaway climate change scenario in which warming is leading to larger and more intense fires, releasing more greenhouse gases and resulting in more warming.” The study focused on the interior forests of Alaska, but the findings likely apply to forests in Siberia, Canada, and northern Europe. The amount of CO2 stored in soil and peat layers across the Northern hemisphere is vast, therefore, these findings have significant implications for the global climate.

For additional information see: Reuters, New York Times, Press Release, Abstract

Climate Change May Change Midwest Crop Strategies

In the second week of December, researchers at Purdue University told farmers in Indiana that they may have to change crop varieties due to climate change. The researchers held a conference to help farmers understand the effects that climate change will have on weather patterns. The researchers said one scenario predicts southern style climate in the Midwest by 2100 with Virginia-like winters and Oklahoma-like summers. Purdue agricultural economist Otto Doering said warmer winters could mean that pests are not wiped out during the cold months. Corn pollination is dependent on warmer days and cooler nights, which could be affected as climate change occurs. Doering also said that climate change could force farmers to choose seed varieties with different resistance traits and maturity dates. Additionally, soil erosion may change as temperature and rainfall patterns change.

For additional information see: United Press International, Press Release

Increased Carbon Dioxide Creates Cooling Effect from Increased Plant Growth

On December 7, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) will create additional growth of plants and trees, which will create a cooling effect. Results from a new NASA computer modeling effort indicated that while the increased plant growth could create a cooling effect, it could not reverse or halt climate change. The computer model calculated the cooling effect to be -0.3°C globally, and -0.6°C over land. In a CO2 doubling scenario, the model calculated a warming of 1.94°C globally without accounting for the negative feedback. This is the first model to incorporate “down-regulation” — the ability of plants to use water more efficiently when higher amounts of CO2 are available —into predictions about how the climate will change with increased levels of CO2. The latest research shows “how, over time, scientists will create more sophisticated models that will chip away at the uncertainty range of climate change and allow more accurate projections of future climate,” NASA said.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Agence France Presse, Abstract

Deforestation May Account for Less Carbon Emissions than Previously Thought

In the first week of December, Winrock International ecologists stated that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from deforestation are much lower than previously thought. The analysis, funded by the World Bank and the Norwegian government, shows that CO2 emissions from deforestation during 2000-2005 were responsible for 5-12 percent of total global emissions. In 2006, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated CO2 emissions to be around 20 percent during the same period. Researchers used more than three million data points and 4000 carbon inventories to complete the study which has not yet been formally published. New Scientist spoke with some forest scientists who believe that the recent analysis done by Winrock may underestimate the CO2 emissions from the conversion of natural forests to palm oil plantations. The IPCC includes these conversions in its estimates, so these scientists believe this may account for the discrepancy in the two findings.

For additional information see: New Scientist

• Living Buildings Could Combat Climate Change Effects
• Shipping to Steer Cleaner Carbon Course
• G20 Emission Reductions Fail to Go “Far or Fast Enough”
• Measuring Air-Sea Exchange of Carbon Dioxide in the Open Ocean
• Global Sea-Level Rise at the End of the Last Ice Age Interrupted by Rapid ‘Jumps’
• Cloud ‘Feedback’ Affects Global Climate and Warming
• El-Nino Patterns Offer Better Understanding of Climate Change
• Ice-Age Reptile Extinctions Provide a Glimpse of Likely Responses to Human-Caused Climate Change

Writers: Amber Pembleton and Matthew Johnson

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Remember EESI in Your Year-End Giving Plans

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) is an independent nonprofit organization that depends on your contributions to bring you timely, credible information on climate change. Please make a year-end gift to EESI today — we have received Charity Navigator’s four-star ranking for four consecutive years, so you know your donation will be managed effectively. Thank you for your support!

On November 22, Chinese government officials held a press conference outlining their position ahead of the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Cancun, Mexico. The press event was scheduled to coincide with the release of their annual report, The Climate Change Green Paper. China’s chief negotiator in international climate change talks, Xie Zhenhua, acknowledged that China was the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and hoped the GHG emissions would peak at an early date. He also said that rich countries should take the lead with steep cuts in GHG emissions, allowing developing countries to grow their economies. China wants the Kyoto Protocol to continue as the key climate treaty, which would allow developing nations such as China to take voluntary, non-binding steps in curbing emissions. Xie also noted that negotiations in Cancun would only succeed if participants agreed on financing and technology transfer mechanisms to help developing countries reduce their GHG emissions. “Developed countries need to take the lead in massively cutting their greenhouse gas emission[s] in order to give further development space to developing countries,” Xie said. “Developing countries in particular should be concerned about achieving tangible results with regard to funding and technology transfer issues.”

In related news, officials from several countries have announced their positions and expectations heading into Cancun. On November 25, Hideki Minamikawa, vice minister for global environmental affairs at Japan’s environment ministry, said that Japan opposes an extension of the Kyoto Protocol if it binds only rich nations to limit their carbon emissions and excludes China and the United States. Earlier, dozens of African countries signed on to a consensus statement at the Seventh Annual African Development Forum that, in part, reiterated the long held negotiating position that industrialized nations should take the lead in reducing GHG emissions and increase their finance and technology transfer to developing countries. Lead Canadian climate negotiator Guy Saint-Jacques expressed his doubts of the UN climate process, noting “I find it’s a very frustrating process, because it means you’re not working on a consensus basis, you’re working on unanimity basis,” he said. “Any country can block any point on the discussion.”

For additional information see: Reuters, Associated Press, China Daily, Consensus Statement of the African Development Forum, The Globe and Mail, Reuters

On November 22, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized two rules that will govern carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), which could allow large carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters such as coal-fired power plants to reduce emissions by injecting CO2 underground. The new geologic sequestration rules aim to protect drinking water and track the amount of CO2 that is stored. “We’re taking a major step towards path breaking innovations that will reduce greenhouse gases and put America in the forefront of the clean energy economy,” said EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson. “By providing clarity about greenhouse gas reporting and the necessary protections for drinking water sources during carbon sequestration, we’ve cleared the way for people to use this promising technology.” The rule concerning greenhouse gas reporting for geologic sequestration will take effect December 31, 2010, and the rule concerning drinking water safety will take effect in the summer of 2011.

For additional information see:  Associated Press, Bloomberg, EPA

On November 23, a diverse group of 56 faith-based groups released a joint letter urging the Senate to continue allowing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Clean Air Act. The joint letter opens as follows: “As communities and people of faith, we are called to protect and serve God’s great Creation and work for justice for all of God’s people. We believe that the United States must take all appropriate and available actions to prevent the worst impacts of climate change; we therefore urge you to oppose any efforts to undermine the authority of the Clean Air Act (CAA) to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.” Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) has submitted a proposal to delay EPA’s authority to regulate GHG emissions by two years. The proposal may receive a vote before the end of the year.

For additional information see: PR Newswire

On November 22, the California Adaptation Advisory Panel released a report that provides plans for California to adapt to climate change impacts. The report calls for Governor-elect Jerry Brown to appoint a Climate Risk Council that would assess relevant science and provide guidance to the Governor on risks associated with climate change. The report focuses largely on coastal counties, and urged a more cohesive approach to three threats: diminishing water supplies, sea level rise, and severe fire outbreaks. “The picture is global and yet there are regional differences,” Ralph Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences said. “California wants to make sure they understand what may happen in the case of sea level rise – not just along the coast, but inland as well. They want to take actions that will keep them ahead of the game.”

For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Report

On November 16, Exelon released a plan of action to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by about 60 million metric tons per year. Exelon is the nation’s largest owner of nuclear power plants, which do not emit CO2 to produce power, and plans to spend more than $5 billion by 2017 to reduce its CO2 emissions. Others in the utility industry have identified opportunities to make similar investments. Bob Shapard, chief executive at Oncor, an energy-delivery company in Dallas, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that smart meters, electric cars and big transmission projects could trim greenhouse gas emissions significantly and were a worthy focus of utility investment.

For additional information see: Wall Street Journal, Exelon Press Release

On November 21, mayors from 138 of the world’s largest cities signed a pact to set greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals in hopes that their national counterparts would make similar progress at the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Cancun. The accord is voluntary, but both the targets and the progress that the cities make will be reported to a Cities Climate Registry. The summit’s host, Mayor Marcelo Ebrard of Mexico City, noted that there were also financial interests at stake: “mayors believe that if financial resources become available through transfers from developed to developing countries, a significant portion of these monies should be passed through to cities and local governments to implement local climate programs.” The summit was convened by the World Mayors Council on Climate Change, Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), and United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG).

For additional information see: CNN, Business Green, New York Times, Agence France Presse

On November 23, the United Nations Environment Program released a report showing that if all greenhouse gas reduction pledges made at the UN climate summit last year in Copenhagen were achieved, it would only amount to 60 percent of the reductions needed to keep the global warming to 2°C. Instead, the corresponding temperature rise would be approximately 2.5°C. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon said that the emissions gap needed to be discussed at the climate negotiations in Cancun scheduled to begin November 29. Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change said, “governments meeting at the U.N. Climate Conference in Cancún will need to both anchor the pledges they made in Copenhagen in the U.N. context and to work swiftly to agree on ways to reduce emissions so that the world has a chance of staying below a 2 degree Celsius temperature rise.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, Report

On November 24, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a bulletin showing that concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere have reached record highs since pre-industrial times. GHGs have the ability to absorb more solar radiation than other atmospheric gases, and this causes an increase in Earth’s surface temperature. “The main long-lived greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have reached their highest recorded levels since the beginning of the industrial age, and this despite the recent economic slowdown,” WMO Deputy Secretary-General Jeremiah Lengoasa said. Carbon dioxide contributes to 63.5 percent of total radiative forcing. Its concentration has increased by 38 percent since 1750, mainly because of emissions from burning fossil fuels, deforestation and changes in land use, the WMO said. The findings of the bulletin will be discussed at the UN climate negotiations in Cancun, scheduled to begin November 29.

For additional information see: Reuters, Bloomberg, World Meteorological Association

On November 26, the UK Meteorological (Met) Office released a report showing that climate change is occurring even though the rate of warming may have slowed in the past decade. The Met Office also announced that sea surface temperatures from the last decade were going to be adjusted upwards. Beginning in 2000, buoys began recording temperature data, but prior to that, the data was supplied by ships. The buoys tend to record a lower temperature than the ships, and thus the data will have to be recalibrated. The Met Office stated: “since the late 1970s the long-term rate of surface warming has been about 0.16 °C per decade. However, over the last decade the rate of warming has decreased. Natural variability within the climate system could explain all of this recent decrease. Other factors could have contributed: changes in stratospheric water vapor, solar variability, and increased aerosol emissions from Asia.” The Office acknowledged that more research was needed to fully understand the short and long-term trends in climate variability.

For additional information see: Reuters, Guardian, Financial Times, CNN

In the third week of November, the government of Norway released a report documenting Norway’s vulnerability to climate change and the possible adaptation measures that it could take to combat the effects of climate change. The report found that average annual temperatures in Norway are projected to rise 2.3-4.6°C, average annual precipitation is expected to increase five to 30 percent by 2100, ocean temperatures will rise along the entire Norwegian coastline, and sea levels could rise in varied amounts along the coast. The report supports long-term research programs that will specifically address climate change impacts and actions to adapt to those impacts. The report also emphasizes the need for knowledge dissemination and specially prepared climate projections that enables technical users to comprehend the models and make better decisions.

For additional information see: Science Daily, The Research Council of Norway

On November 21, the Global Carbon Project published a study in Nature Geoscience showing that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels in 2009 fell just 1.3 percent below 2008 levels, less than half of the 2.8 percent drop that was expected. The recession caused CO2 growth rates to be lower in the UK, Japan, Germany, France, Russia and the United States. However, CO2 emissions from China increased by eight percent in 2009. Additionally, the overall amount of global fossil fuel emissions was still the second highest in human history, at 30.8 billion tons, just below the record set in 2008. CO2 emissions levels in 2010 are expected to rise again and could reach record levels; this is largely due to the burning of oil, coal, and gas in countries like China and India as their economies grow. The study did show that CO2 emissions from deforestation have decreased by over 25 percent since 2000. The study was part of Global Carbon Project’s annual carbon budget update.

For additional information see: Telegraph, Business Green, Science Daily, Global Carbon Project

In the third week of November, researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa published a study in the Journal of Climate showing that warmer climates are more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gases than previously thought. Currently, there is disagreement in many climate models about the magnitude of global warming due to the feedback caused by clouds. Some models predict that global average cloud cover will increase in a warmer climate, and other models predict that global average cloud cover will be reduced. This study applied a model developed at the International Pacific Research Center to study the clouds of a limited region of atmosphere over the eastern Pacific Ocean, which are known to greatly influence the present climate, but were previously poorly represented in climate models. Co-author Kevin Hamilton concludes, “If our model results prove to be representative of the real global climate, then climate is actually more sensitive to perturbations by greenhouse gases than current global models predict, and even the highest warming predictions would underestimate the real change we could see.”

For additional information see: Science Daily, Abstract

On November 23, a study published in an online journal of the Public Library of Science shows that as climate change forces grizzly bears and polar bears to accept closer habitats, grizzly bears will likely win out in the fight for food. Grizzly bears have begun moving north as their original habitat becomes warmer, and polar bears have begun moving south as climate change has reduced the amount of ice in their original habitat, forcing the two species to share territory. Polar bears’ diet will have to change, and scientists say their skulls and teeth are not designed to eat vegetation like plants, grass, tree bark, and berries. However, plants already makes up the bulk of the grizzly bears’ diet. “To people who say polar bears can just change their diet, we are saying … they will have to, but it probably will not be sufficient for them, especially if they are co-existing with grizzly bears,” said Blair Van Valkenburgh, senior author of the paper.

For additional information see: Reuters

On November 24, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that lakes are warming faster than the air. Using satellites, two NASA scientists studied 167 large inland lakes around the globe and found that on average they had warmed 1.1°C since 1985, which is about two and half times higher than the same average increase in air temperature. Russia’s Lake Ladoga and America’s Lake Tahoe warmed 2.2°C and 1.7°C, respectively, the most out of the lakes studied. The scientists said the next question to consider was why the lakes were warming faster than the air or land. “Our analysis provides a new, independent data source for assessing the impact of climate change over land around the world,” said Philipp Schneider, lead author of the study. “The results have implications for lake ecosystems, which can be adversely affected by even small water temperature changes.”

For additional information see: Associated Press, Agence France Presse

On November 23, a study published in Carbon Balance and Management shows that carbon emission reduction strategies, such as reforestation projects may threaten biodiversity in the tropics. The authors studied biodiversity and carbon emission reduction schemes in Indonesia to highlight how biodiversity could be harmed under strategies like the UN’s Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) program. “Peat swamp forests attract the bulk of REDD funds — they hold around 8 times more carbon than other lowland forests, and provide habitat for high profile species such as orangutan, tigers and Asian elephants,” co-author Matthew Struebig, from the University of London said. “However, when we look at overall numbers of plants, mammals and birds, especially species of greatest conservation concern, we find that peat forests typically support lower densities and fewer species than other lowland forest types.” Lead author Gary Paoli said, “in short, the highest carbon savings are not necessarily located in places with the highest levels of species diversity.” The authors argue that a regulatory framework for REDD is needed that will produce co-benefits for biodiversity and carbon emissions reduction.

For additional information see:

• Next Climate Warming Report Will Be Dramatically Worse: UN
• 500,000 Years of Geological History in the Dead Sea Represents Valuable Climate Change Data
• Warning Over Desertification in China
• City of Boston Chosen for Inaugural Climate Change Pilot Program
• Front-Line City in Virginia Tackles Sea Level Rise

Writers: Amber Pembleton and Matthew Johnson

Please distribute Climate Change News to your colleagues. Permission for reproduction of this newsletter is granted provided that the Environmental and Energy Study Institute is properly acknowledged as the source. Past issues are available here. Free email subscriptions are available here. We welcome your suggestions, comments, and questions.

EESI’s work, including this free newsletter, is made possible by financial support from people like you. Please help us continue to make it available by making a secure, online donation today by clicking here or mailing a check to Environmental and Energy Study Institute; 1112 16th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20036. Please contact Susan Williams at (202) 662-1887 (202) 662-1887 or see www.eesi.org/donate to find out more. Thank you for your support!

On September 21, U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern discussed the unlikelihood of a binding climate agreement at December’s UN climate change conference in Cancun. According to the U.S. climate envoy, any binding climate commitment is still a work in progress. “Nobody is anticipating or expecting in any way a legal treaty to be done in Cancun this year,” Stern told reporters during the Major Economies Forum held this week in New York. However, Stern said that nations are dedicated to making progress on six core issues including finance, mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change. In addition, Stern reaffirmed that the United States is committed to cutting its emissions 17 percent by 2020 compared to 2005, but did not specify strategies to achieve U.S. climate goals. Still, he remained optimistic, saying “We’re at the beginning of a 10-year period between 2010 and 2020. I don’t have any doubt that there’s going to be legislation of some kind that will be meaningful.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg, AP, AFP, Reuters

On September 22, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman told the Reuters Washington Summit that he believes Congress will not pass a comprehensive climate bill for at least two years. Bingaman said, “I’d be surprised if that kind of a comprehensive climate and energy bill could pass both houses of Congress in the next Congress, since they’ve been unable to pass in this Congress.” Republican Congressional candidates, most of whom oppose greenhouse gas regulation, are anticipated to gain several Congressional seats in the November 2 election.

For additional information see: Reuters, BusinessGreen

On September 7, the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) published its Climate Change Response Strategy that outlines the agency’s efforts to address and lessen the effects of climate change. Director Jonathan Jarvis created the NPS Climate Change Response Strategy initiative and enacted a new coordinating group made up of four associate directors to lead the program, which will focus on science, adaptation, mitigation, and communication. According to the report, NPS has set the goal to be a “leader in all aspects of recy­cling, alternative fuels, energy efficiency, and sustainable design and construction.” As part of its adaptation strategy, NPA will promote ecosystem resilience and enhance restoration, conservation, and preservation of park resources. In the following 18 months, NPS will develop an implementation plan to accomplish the goals listed in the report.

For additional information see: NPS Report

On September 21, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced at the Clinton Global Initiative the formation of the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves. The new alliance addresses both public health concerns and climate change concerns by pledging to provide 100 million households in developing counties clean and efficient stoves and fuel by 2020. Traditional stoves in these communities are fueled by wood, dung and coal, which produce toxic smoke. In addition, traditional stoves account for 20 percent of global black carbon emissions. Cleaner cookstoves that use low-carbon fuel sources will significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

For additional information see: Center for American Progress

On September 20, United Nations (UN) climate chief Christiana Figueres pointed to businesses as significant players in upcoming global climate negotiations. Figueres spoke at the opening presentation of the Major Economies Forum (MEF) and explained that businesses are adapting to growing energy demands and now view the urgency of reducing carbon emission as a strategic opportunity. “Business needs to make the government representatives understand that this could be to their advantage,” Figueres said. “Governments will be bolder if they are told that they can do so by investors and businesses.” Figueres’ comments were made following the release of a report by the Carbon Disclosure Project that surveyed the top 500 global companies and concluded that 90 percent believe there is “significant commercial opportunity arising from climate change.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg

On September 22, Shaden Abdel Gawad, president of Egypt’s National Water Research Centre, said that the Arab world will be one of the most damaged regions because of climate change. Rising sea levels due to climate change will “render many of our coastal zones redundant or obsolete,” Gawad said at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) regional consultation on climate change held in Cairo. The conference, called “Sea-Level Rise, Coastal Erosion and Human Development,” addressed potential sea-level scenarios in Egypt, where over half the population lives within 100 km of the coastline. According to the World Bank, rising sea levels could diminish 16 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Egypt. The Arab world has one of the fastest growing greenhouse gas emission rates; however, the region is responsible for only five percent of global emissions.

For additional information see: Reuters, UNDP Press Release

On September 22, top Russian climate advisor Alexander Bedritsky said the Kyoto Protocol will have negligible impact on mitigating global warming and that Russia is demanding a more “inclusive” agreement that would include large carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters like the United States, China and other developing countries. As of 2010, the 40 industrialized nations bound by the Kyoto Protocol account for only 28 percent of global CO2 emissions. Bedritsky acknowledged that a binding agreement would not be reached during December’s UN negotiations in Cancun, but expressed optimism that significant progress will be made. Bedritsky specified that at the negotiations, Russia will seek recognition for the role its forests play in CO2 absorption. Climate change policy has a new sense of urgency in Russia following a deadly summer heat wave that broke all temperature records, killed dozens in wildfires, and destroyed one quarter of Russia’s grain crop.

For additional information see: Reuters

On September 17, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on the world’s governments to agree on a global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission plan for the aviation industry at October’s International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) assembly. Speaking at an aviation and environment summit in Geneva, IATA director Giovanni Bisignani affirmed the aviation industry’s commitment to reducing CO2 emissions but stressed that a global framework needs to be put in place. Basignani said, “We cannot meet our ambitious targets without the support and cooperation of governments.” Aviation is a global industry that will be hurt by regional differences in national emissions trading schemes and taxes. The industry hopes to achieve a 1.5 percent average improvement in fuel efficiency each year until 2020, achieve carbon-neutral growth by 2020, and cut net emissions in half by 2050 compared to 2005.

For additional information see: BusinessGreen, IATA Press Release, Bisignani Speech

On September 20, the Carbon Disclosure Project released a survey sponsored by Bank of America Merrill Lynch that analyzed emission reports of the top 500 global companies in 2010. Approximately 90 percent of the companies responding to the survey said that there is “significant commercial opportunity arising from climate change.” Carbon management is emerging as a strategic business priority as 85 percent of the companies surveyed reported having some form of upper level management focusing on climate change and 48 percent are incorporating new climate change initiatives into overall strategy. Detailed in the report is the Carbon Disclosure Leadership Index (CDLI), which measures a company’s commitment to emission reductions. American companies at this moment trail European counterparts six percent to 21 percent in the CDLI.

For additional information see: Carbon Disclosure Project Press Release, Carbon Disclosure Project Report, Reuters, Bloomberg

In the September issue of “The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene,” a study was published that analyzed how various climate patterns affected the prevalence of bubonic plague infections between 1950 and 2005. Researchers from Norway, France and the United States tracked climatic conditions in 195 counties throughout the Western United States in areas that reported any infections. The study concluded that rising nighttime temperatures since 1990 caused infections to steadily drop. Warming temperatures caused soil to be much drier in rodent burrows. Plague-carrying fleas have a much harder time surviving in dry environments and as a result fewer rodents became infected.

For additional information see: New York Times

On September 19, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) announced that an increase of 1°C in average temperature correlates with a 4.27 percent increase in the prevalence of various diseases such as malaria, bacillary dysentery and enteritis. KIHASA studied five epidemics from 2005 to 2007 while keeping track of demographic differences. The report concludes that higher temperatures cause viruses to be more active. This is of particular concern in Korea because the Korea Meteorological Administration predicted the country would experience nine more days of summer by 2040 and an additional summer month by 2090.

For additional information see: Korea Times

On September 6, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences calculated the carbon stored in 11 million acres of rain-forest. The study details how lead researcher Greg Asner and his team were able to cost-effectively measure forest carbon with high accuracy. Asner believes that his technique is fully scalable and will help accurately measure forest carbon in diverse environments – an important capability that makes deforestation policy focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions viable. The carbon released due to deforestation is estimated to contribute 10 to 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

For additional information see: New York Times

On September 15, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced that arctic sea ice may have reached its yearly minimum on September 10. Arctic sea ice appears to have reached the third-lowest extent recorded since satellites began measuring minimum sea ice extent in 1979. However, NSIDC will wait to make its final conclusion until the end of September, because there is still a small chance that more ice will melt. The 2010 minimum was surpassed only by minimum extents in 2008 and 2007. The Arctic has experienced unusually warm temperatures in recent years, strengthening a melting feedback cycle where dark water absorbs more sunlight than white ice reflects.

For additional information see: NSIDC Press Release, NSIDC Data, New York Times

On September 23, a study published in Nature attributed a slight drop in global temperatures around 1970 to a rapid 0.3°C drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures. The previously accepted explanation for the slight drop in global temperatures was that an accumulation of sun-dimming pollution had deflected sun radiation. Scientists still cannot fully explain the reasons for the period of unusually cold sea surface temperatures, however.

For additional information see: Reuters, Study

• Study Shows Warming in Deep Waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing to examine the state of post-disaster, interim housing provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and opportunities to improve the quality and value of this housing. After Hurricane Katrina, FEMA updated its interim-housing procurement specifications to reduce formaldehyde levels in trailer interiors. But there are other criteria that FEMA could also specify, including improved energy efficiency, durability, resilience, accessibility, indoor air quality, and life-cycle cost. This briefing will address opportunities for FEMA to incorporate high performance criteria into its procurement specs; current efforts underway by FEMA, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and others to develop and test new prototypes; and the potential economic and health benefits for disaster victims, taxpayers, communities, residents of all new manufactured housing, and FEMA itself. This briefing will be held on Tuesday, September 28, 2010 from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. in the 428A Russell Senate Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required. For more information, contact Ellen Vaughan at (202) 662-1893

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing on challenges facing the oil industry to keep pace with rising global demand, and the potential implications for oil prices, national security, and the world economy. Numerous sources project demand for liquid fuels to rise to historically unprecedented levels once the global economy recovers from the recent recession. Global oil production, meanwhile, has leveled off since 2005, real oil prices have roughly doubled, and spare capacity has tightened, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Potential constraints on global oil production have raised concerns among industry observers, military leaders, and policymakers. This briefing will examine the economic, technical, and political factors that influence the rate at which oil is extracted and processed, and how patterns of global oil production are changing. This briefing will be held on Thursday, October 7, 2010 from 10:00 – 11:30 a.m. in the SVC 203/202 Capitol Visitor Center. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required. For more information, contact Jan Mueller at (202) 662-1883

Writers: Nicholas Mostovych

Please distribute Climate Change News to your colleagues. Permission for reproduction of this newsletter is granted provided that the Environmental and Energy Study Institute is properly acknowledged as the source. Past issues are available here. Free email subscriptions are available here. We welcome your suggestions, comments, and questions.

EESI’s work, including this free newsletter, is made possible by financial support from people like you. Please help us continue to make it available by making a secure, online donation today by clicking here or mailing a check to Environmental and Energy Study Institute; 1112 16th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20036. Please contact Susan Williams at (202) 662-1887 (202) 662-1887 or see www.eesi.org/donate to find out more. Thank you for your support!